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Another
thing to remember is that every raise shortens the odds. Here is
a simple illustration based on the game mentioned before. You have
a $1 ante by the dealer, a $1 blind opening by A, and a $2 blind
raise by B. If C opens (in effect) by raising to $3, and all the
others drop, B can come in for $1 and get 7 to 1 on his money. There
is $7 in the pot and he need put in only $1. If another player raises
to $4, the pot goes up to $11, but it costs him $2 to stay and now
he is getting only 52 to 1. And so on, every time there is a raise.
Some authorities advocate adopting a strict system and sticking
to it. That would be excellent if there were such a system, but
I'm afraid there isn't. A system can cover precisely the times when
you should play or raise or drop, but it can't cover the questions
of judgment that are bound to arise sooner or later whether or not
to call, whether or not someone is bluffing or underestimating his
hand. You can lose enough by misjudging these situations to offset
the advantages of the system.
The most nearly foolproof system I have seen is the one advocated
by the excellent poker writer and player who writes under the name
of Jack King. He applies it to table-stakes stud. If he plays at
all, it is because he believes he has the best hand at the time,
and then he pushes in his entire stack.. If his appraisal of his
hand is correct (as it almost always will be), he has the best chance
of winning.
This is a simple application of the rule that the best hand going
in will probably be the best hand coming out. But there is the social
drawback (in an informal game the other players probably won't like
this system); and possibly they can beat the system anyway by calling
only when they are pretty sure you have overrated your hand. If
they learn to do this, your winning pots are mostly peanuts, and
you can lose back a lot when you go wrong.
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