mathematical expectancies |Poker Strategy|

The mathematical expectancies must also be modified by a further question you must ask yourself: "Is there any point to betting?" For example, you are against one other player in a draw poker game. He draws three cards, and you draw three cards to two jacks. You make jacks-up. The odds are 22' to 1 that he did not improve his pair, so mathematically you have a good bet.

But the realities are that if he did not improve he probably will not call, and your bet becomes pointless, whereas if he did improve and calls, he can probably beat you. Therefore, mathematics or no mathematics, you do not bet. If you had made three jacks you would have bet, because mathematics tells you that the odds are 8 to 1 against his having made three-of-a- kind, and you may get a call if he made aces-up or kings-up. When you are deciding whether to stay or drop, and when betting is normal, mathematics is an excellent guide. When players begin raising and reraising, mathematics goes out the window.

Nevertheless, every poker player who aspires to be accomplished should know the odds against improving on various draws, and he should not forget to compare those odds against the odds offered by the pot. This may seem so fundamental that it is hardly worth mentioning, but not one poker player in a hundred bothers with these figures, and the vast majority of all losses suffered in poker games can be attributed to sticking around when the pot offers shorter odds than the odds against improvement.